Currently, the world is experiencing an accelerated process of profound transformation over the past century, and the global energy transition is also continuously deepening. As key mineral resources that support energy transition and green development, they are facing multiple challenges such as surging demand and unstable supply chains. The gap in international governance is becoming increasingly prominent. Against this backdrop, the global mining supply and demand pattern is accelerating its adjustment, the mining market is showing an unbalanced trend, policy coordination and rule competition coexist, and the global mining industry is entering a period of superimposed transformation. This transformation is dominated by safety logic, reshaped by technological revolution, and restructured by governance rules.
01
The supply and demand pattern of mineral resources has undergone a profound adjustment, with safety logic dominating the reshaping of the industrial chain.
Since 2025, the global economy has demonstrated strong resilience under multiple pressures such as geopolitics, debt expansion, inflation, and monetary policies, but the growth momentum has been weak. The global industrial chain and supply chain are accelerating from prioritizing “efficiency” to prioritizing “safety”, and regionalization, near-shoring, digitalization, and camp division trends are profoundly reshaping the trade and investment landscape. The total production and consumption of global energy resources have generally increased, but the structure has undergone deep adjustment, with significant differences in different mineral types.
In the energy minerals sector, oil is in surplus, reflecting weak demand for chemical raw materials; natural gas is in both supply and demand growth; coal production has decreased, but consumption has increased. The supply and demand trends of bulk solid minerals vary: steel production is decreasing while demand is increasing, copper supply and demand are continuously growing, aluminum supply and demand are both decreasing, and zinc supply and demand are both increasing. Strategic emerging minerals have seen rapid growth in supply and demand, but they generally face the pressure of oversupply, with the oversupply of nickel and lithium deepening, and the oversupply of cobalt weakening. The supply and demand of precious metals are significantly differentiated, platinum and silver are in short supply, while gold is in a tight balance. Agricultural minerals have seen both supply and demand increase, and the supply surplus of potassium fertilizer and phosphate fertilizer has further expanded.
02
Investment in solid mineral exploration has continued to decline, while the drilling market as a whole has shown an overall recovery.
In 2025, the global major investment in solid mineral exploration was 12.401 billion US dollars, a slight decrease of 0.6% compared to the previous year. It has declined for the fourth consecutive year, but the decline has narrowed significantly compared to the previous year.
In terms of mineral types, the investment in strategic emerging minerals exploration has significantly decreased, while the exploration investment in gold and copper mines has increased against the trend. In terms of regional structure, exploration investment still focuses on Latin America (accounting for 26.5% of the global total), while exploration investment in traditional mining regions such as Canada and Australia has significantly decreased. The exploration investment in the Asia-Pacific region and Africa is relatively small but has shown a significant increase. In terms of exploration stages, the proportion of exploration investment in the mining development stage has further increased to 45.4%, while the proportion of exploration investment in the grassroots stage has continued to shrink to 20.8%. In terms of funding sources, the proportion of exploration investment by large mining companies in the total investment has risen to 53.4%, further strengthening their dominant position. The financing difficulties of small and medium-sized exploration companies have not been substantially improved.
The global major solid mineral drilling market has reversed the downward trend of the previous two years, with the total number of drilling projects and boreholes increasing by 9.9% and 31.2% respectively year-on-year. Among them, the increase in the number of precious metal drilling projects was the largest, with the proportion of gold drilling projects accounting for 61.5% and remaining in an absolute dominant position; the proportion of strategic emerging minerals drilling projects decreased by 7.5 percentage points.
Changes in global major solid mineral exploration investment by exploration stage from 2015 to 2025 (Data source: S&P Global Market Intelligence)
Monthly changes in the number of global major solid mineral drilling projects from January 2024 to February 2026 (Data source: S&P Global Market Intelligence)
03
The price fluctuations of mineral products have widened, and the volume and price of capital market financing and mergers and acquisitions have all increased.
In 2025, the price fluctuations of major global mineral products will widen. Precious metals and new energy minerals will lead the rise, while fossil energy will face overall pressure. The prices of energy minerals will generally decline, with the average annual prices of oil and coal dropping by 15.1% and 22.0% respectively; the prices of bulk solid minerals will fluctuate upward, with iron ore prices slightly decreasing, and copper, aluminum, and zinc prices rising; the prices of strategic emerging minerals will vary and fluctuate greatly, with lithium prices falling first and then rising, cobalt’s annual average price increasing by 33.0%, and nickel’s annual average price decreasing; precious metal prices will rise strongly and reach new highs repeatedly, with gold, silver, and platinum prices increasing by 62.8%, 144.8%, and 141.7% respectively within the year; the average price of agricultural minerals will rise, and the market will gradually recover.
Supported by the increase in the prices of major mineral products, the stock prices of major global mining companies have generally risen strongly. The stock prices of oil and gas companies have recovered, the stock prices of solid mineral companies have risen significantly, and the stock prices of gold companies have shown particularly prominent growth, with some rising by more than 200%; the stock prices of strategic emerging mineral companies have fluctuated differently and greatly, with potassium salt company stock prices fluctuating upward. The stock prices of Chinese mining companies have generally risen, and the stock prices of new energy, rare earth, non-ferrous metals, precious metals, and agricultural minerals have risen strongly, while the stock prices of coal, oil, and steel companies have performed steadily.
The global financing and mergers and acquisitions market for mineral resources has significantly heated up. The number and transaction amount of financing and mergers and acquisitions of major solid minerals have both increased in volume and price. In the financing market, the dominant position of equity financing has further strengthened. Although the financing amounts of the Toronto Stock Exchange and the Australian Stock Exchange have decreased, they still maintain a core position. The number and amount of financing for strategic emerging minerals, bulk solid minerals, and gold have significantly increased. In the mergers and acquisitions market, regional differences are obvious. The transaction amounts and numbers of mergers and acquisitions in Europe and North America have soared, while those in Asia have continued to decline; at the mineral type level, the transaction amounts and numbers of mergers and acquisitions of precious metals and bulk solid minerals have significantly increased, while the transaction amount of lithium has significantly declined, and the transaction amounts of nickel and cobalt have grown rapidly.
04
The market value of mining companies has soared significantly while their performances vary. Sustainable development has become a rigid constraint.
Since 2025, the global mining market recovery has driven the total market value of the top 50 mining companies worldwide to skyrocket, reaching 2.17 trillion US dollars in the fourth quarter of 2025, an increase of 60.7% year-on-year. Among them, mining companies mainly engaged in precious metals and copper have dominated the market, while the number of enterprises in the bulk mineral and strategic emerging mineral sectors has slightly decreased; Canada has the highest number of listed companies and total market value, with China having the second-highest number of listed companies and the third-highest market value.
In terms of company performance, the revenue of large mining companies varies greatly: precious metal companies have seen a sharp increase in profits and excellent performance, while energy mining companies have experienced a general decline in revenue and profits. Fertilizer companies have performed well.
The global mining capital market has become increasingly active, promoting structural adjustments in the allocation of global mineral resources. In the precious metals sector, enterprises accelerate mergers and asset restructurings to compete for control of high-grade mines, and transaction scales have significantly expanded; in the energy transition mineral sector, copper and lithium have become the focus of capital competition, and industry concentration has further increased; in the non-metal sector, the demand for supply chain security has driven large-scale integration waves in potassium salts and graphite and other minerals.
Sustainability has risen from a soft commitment to a rigid constraint that determines the competitiveness of mining companies. International mining companies have deeply integrated quantifiable environmental indicators, multi-dimensional social responsibility, and transparent governance mechanisms into their operational systems.
05
Advanced economies have comprehensively established a critical mineral security system, while resource-based developing countries have strengthened their resource sovereignty and diversified cooperation.
Since 2025, the mining policies of various countries have generally maintained a profound transformation tone. The mining policies of major developed economies and resource-based developing countries have simultaneously tightened. Major developed economies have elevated the issue of critical mineral security from an economic policy topic to a major national security strategy. Through dynamic updates of critical mineral lists, accelerating the approval process for local mineral development, deepening bilateral and multilateral cooperation networks, increasing government equity investment and strategic reserves, adjusting critical mineral trade and investment policies, promoting the institutionalization of green mining governance, and making advanced preparations for deep-sea and non-traditional mineral resources, they have been striving to enhance the resilience and security level of the entire mining chain and improve their influence in international mining governance rules. Policy intervention is accelerating from declarative arrangements to substantive implementation. Resource-based developing countries, on the basis of continuously advancing legal systems and mining administration reforms, have further strengthened their awareness of resource sovereignty. They have intensively introduced a series of policies in areas such as local processing, optimization of revenue distribution mechanisms, regional collaborative development, adjustment of investment incentives, and strengthening industry supervision, actively promoting the transformation of their resource potential into industrial advantages and economic growth drivers, and striving to occupy a more favorable position in the global mineral value chain.
06
Scientific and technological innovation drives systematic changes throughout the mining industry chain. The closed-loop paradigm of exploration, development, and recovery is accelerating its formation.
Since 2025, new-generation information technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and big data have been developing rapidly. The global mining industry has entered a period of systematic transformation driven by new productive forces. The closed-loop supply chain of exploration, extraction, and recovery is accelerating its construction.
In the exploration and surveying end, AI-based exploration technologies have rapidly evolved and entered industrial application. High-precision, lightweight, and comprehensive geophysical equipment and multi-source remote sensing technologies such as “star-sky-ground-well” have achieved breakthroughs in multiple aspects. The full-space three-dimensional detection system is accelerating its formation. However, the adaptability of data, models, and complex scenarios remains the main bottleneck.
In the development and operation end, intelligent and green development are driven by two wheels. Major mining countries have intensively introduced intelligent strategies, vertical large models have continuously expanded application scenarios, unmanned mining trucks have achieved large-scale deployment, new energy equipment has covered the entire process of mining and transportation, and mine micro-grid technology has solidified the zero-carbon foundation. At the same time, China’s green mine construction has entered a new stage of legislative and institutional establishment.
In the resource recovery end, economies such as the United States, the European Union, and South Korea have continuously enhanced the strategic position of key mineral recovery and utilization. The number of global patent applications for lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth recovery technologies has increased rapidly. Battery waste and magnet material recovery projects are shifting from strategic layout to large-scale capacity implementation.
07
China adheres to the concept of win-win cooperation and contributes to the sustainable development of the global mining industry.
China is not only a leader and driver of global energy transition, but also a builder and contributor to the governance of key minerals.
At the level of resource cooperation, China continuously expands the “circle of friends” for geoscience and mining international cooperation. It has signed cooperation memorandums in the field of geology and mining with over 70 countries and established long-term mechanisms for mining cooperation with many countries. China promotes the deep integration of resource development with local smelting processing, infrastructure construction and community development, and jointly builds partnerships with shared benefits and shared risks. In the field of scientific and technological innovation, China leverages its technological advantages in intelligent and green exploration and development, clean smelting, and comprehensive utilization, and promotes the wide implementation of technology equipment such as unmanned mining trucks, large-scale mining models, off-grid power supply for mining, and tailings resource recovery around the world, providing a Chinese solution for the global green and intelligent transformation of the mining industry.
In terms of mining governance, China actively participates in the dialogue on mining rules under multilateral frameworks such as the United Nations, the International Energy Agency, and the G20. The “Green International Economic and Trade Cooperation Initiative for Minerals” proposed by China has been joined by 20+ countries and international organizations, and has formulated full-chain mining standards such as the “Sustainable Mining Code”. China has built the world’s largest cluster of green mines, providing a practical sample for global mining green transformation. At the same time, Chinese mining enterprises actively practice the concepts of environment, society, and corporate governance (ESG), deeply integrating community collaboration, local operation, and benefit-sharing mechanisms into the entire life cycle of overseas projects, demonstrating the responsibility and good image of Chinese enterprises.
Looking forward to the future, the global mining industry is at a historical crossroads where multiple transformations converge. The interaction of multiple forces such as green transformation, technological revolution, and international governance deficits will jointly shape the future prospects of the mining industry. Facing the surging demand for key minerals, unstable supply chains, and other numerous challenges, China is willing to work with all parties to deepen production capacity cooperation and technology sharing with resource countries, promote international mutual recognition of standards for intelligent and green mines, advocate the establishment of fair, just, transparent, and key mineral trade and investment rules, promote the construction of an open, inclusive, fair, reasonable, and win-win key mineral governance system, and jointly build a clean, beautiful, and prosperous world.